Project Complexity and Risk Assessment Tool

The Project Complexity and Risk Assessment Tool (PCRA) is intended to support the Treasury Board Policy on the Management of Projects and the Standard for Project Complexity and Risk.

The Treasury Board Policy on the Management of Projects requires deputy heads to ensure that each planned or proposed project which is subject to the Policy is accurately assessed to determine its level of risk and complexity for the purposes of project approval and expenditure authority.

This questionnaire is a derivative of Interis Consulting Inc.'s taxonomy-based questionnaire for project risk assessments. Interis' questionnaire draws extensively on the Continuous Risk Management Guidebook (1999) of the Software Engineering Institute (SEI). In consultation with project managers in the Government of Canada Interis has modified and extended the series of questions to reflect public sector and broader strategic considerations.

Risk and Complexity Definitions

The SEI, the authoring agency of the Continuous Risk Management Guidebook, uses the following definition for the term "risk":

The possibility of suffering loss.

Source: Webster's

The Government of Canada (GC) cites the SEI as the basis for the concepts, methods, and guidelines embodied in the Integrated Risk Management Framework (IRMF). Within that Framework, the following definition of risk provides a standard for the GC:

Risk refers to the uncertainty that surrounds future events and outcomes. It is the expression of the likelihood and impact of an event with the potential to influence the achievement of an organization's objectives.

Source: Government of Canada: Integrated Risk Management Framework (2001)

Risk has three key characteristics. The first is that it looks ahead into the future. The second is that there is an element of uncertainty: a condition or a situation exists that might cause a problem for the project in the future. The third characteristic is related to the outcome. Although it is acknowledged that risk, if managed properly, can lead to opportunity, the definition of risk adopted for the purposes of this policy instrument focuses on adverse outcomes. This definition is consistent with the SEI's Continuous Risk Management software engineering practice supported by An Enhanced Framework for the Management of Information Technology Projects and conforms to the risk management concepts of the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat's Integrated Risk Management Framework.

Project complexity: Complexity is, fittingly, a much more difficult concept to define. Once again, the SEI provides a solid definition from Webster's:

  1. (Apparent) the degree to which a system or component has a design or implementation that is difficult to understand and verify Footnote 1 ;
  2. (Inherent) the degree of complication of a system or system component, determined by such factors as the number and intricacy of interfaces, the number and intricacy of conditional branches, the degree of nesting, and the types of data structures Footnote 2 .

The assessment is divided into seven sections or categories of questions. They are described in Table 1.

This category is designed to build a profile of a given project with respect to key attributes, including funding, budget, size and number of resources, duration, scope, technology scope, stakeholders, dependencies, and external considerations.

This category assesses a project's alignment with the organization's investment plan:

This category assesses the extent to which procurement activities present potential risks to the project.

This category assesses whether the project team has the right skill sets in place, with the appropriate roles and responsibilities.

This category assesses the extent to which the project affects the organization operationally and from a legislative perspective.

This category assesses whether the project demonstrates implementation of key project management control measures and deliverables. This assessment includes addressing the state of the project management plan, project management and control disciplines, and information management processes.

This category assesses, by considering the number, type, and degree of certainty of the requirements, the extent to which the specific requirements of the project add risk and complexity.

Table 2 - Value of the sections
Section Number of Questions Maximum Score
Project Characteristics 18 90
Strategic Management Risks 6 30
Procurement Risks 9 45
Human Resource Risks 5 25
Business Risks 5 25
Project Management Integration Risks 6 30
Project Requirements Risks 15 75
Total 64 320

The questions are all of equal value in the overall score. Please note though that if questions 1, 3, and 11, which deal with money, scope, and time in the project characteristics section, are all answered as '5', a triple constraint condition will apply resulting in '5' response scoring for all questions in this section (i.e. the maximum score of 90 for the section). In addition, if the project has no procurement (addressed in question 2) the minimum score is automatically assigned for each question in the procurement section.

The criteria in the PCRA consider a very broad range of potential project risks which stem from virtually every possible root cause relevant for just about any project. However, not every project risk will apply to every project in every instance. When the PCRA was validated in 2009, it was determined that approximately 70% of the project risks reflected in the assessment criteria would apply to any single project. Therefore, when calculating the final PCRA score, the total numeric value is normalized to accurately reflect the more realistic range of relevant risks for a single project.

Project has low risk and complexity. The project outcome affects only a specific service or at most a specific program, and risk mitigations for general project risks are in place. The project does not consume a significant percentage of departmental or agency resources.

A project rated at this level affects multiple services within a program and may involve more significant procurement activities. It may involve some information management or information technology (IM/IT) or engineering activities. The project risk profile may indicate that some risks could have serious impacts, requiring carefully planned responses. The scope of a tactical project is operational in nature and delivers new capabilities within limits.

As indicated by the name, projects within this level of complexity and risk introduce change, new capabilities and may have a fairly extensive scope. Disciplined skills are required to successfully manage evolutionary projects. Scope frequently spans programs and may affect one or two other departments or agencies. There may be substantial change to business process, internal staff, external clients, and technology infrastructure. IM/IT components may represent a significant proportion of total project activity.

At this level, projects require extensive capabilities and may have a dramatic impact on the organization and potentially other organizations. Horizontal (i.e. multi-departmental, multi-agency, or multi-jurisdictional) projects are transformational in nature. Risks associated with these projects often have serious consequences, such as restructuring the organization, change in senior management, and/or loss of public reputation.

2. Instructions

The PCRA contains 64 questions. The questions are all given an equal percentage in the overall score. This tool is accompanied by the PCRA User Guide and an Excel spreadsheet that will tabulate the final score and rating automatically.

There are a few rules for completing the PCRA:

If you require more specific information regarding the purpose of the section or the significance of a particular rating, please refer to the User Guide. For the definitions of terms, please refer to the Glossary included at the end of the User Guide. Some of the terminology used in the assessment tool may not be a best fit for your organization. Please consult your departmental coordinator on how the terms are to be applied in your organization.

The tool is also available on-line. For further information on how to setup a user account and complete the assessment online, please contact your departmental coordinator or agency lead.

3. Project Complexity and Risk Assessment

3.1 Project Characteristics (18 Questions)

1. What is the total project cost estimate?

2. What percentage of the total project cost estimate is for procurement?

3. Relative to the average project in your organization, which of the following adjectives describes the total project cost estimate?

4. How many people (part-time or full-time on the project, including Government of Canada employees and individual contractors) are required to complete this project at its peak activity?

5. From project defintion to project close-out, what is the expected duration of the project?

6. How many sponsoring or funding departments or agencies are involved?

7. How will the outcome of this project change or directly affect business processes, sectors, branches and other departments and agencies?

8. The proposed or established project governance structure demonstrates adequate support for how many of the following project factors?

  1. appropriate representation of stakeholders and executive management;
  2. documented decision-making processes;
  3. documented roles, responsibilities, and authorities within the governance structure; and
  4. documented information requirements.

9. In supporting the achievement of the expected outcomes, how many of the following criteria apply to the total project cost estimate (either indicative cost estimate or substantive cost estimate)?

  1. Cost estimates are generated at the work-package level.
  2. Cost estimates are based on historical data or industry benchmarks.

10. In supporting the achievement of the expected outcomes, how many of the following criteria apply to the costing model?

  1. The source of funds has been identified within departmental reference levels.
  2. The funds have been internally committed.

11. Is the project susceptible to time delays? Time delays can have a number of causes, such as the following:

  1. Changes in technology;
  2. Requirements of participating organizations;
  3. Seasonal considerations;
  4. The need for policy approvals; and
  5. External influences.

12. Do geographical considerations influence the manner in which the project is conducted? Consider the following statements:

  1. Project activities or team members are distributed across a wide geographical area.
  2. The project will be conducted in a remote or difficult location.

13. Do environmental considerations influence the manner in which the project is conducted?

14. Are there any socio-economic considerations that must be taken into account?

15. Consider how the availability of facilities will influence the manner in which the project is conducted:

16. Does public perception influence the manner in which the project is conducted?

17. Do considerations relating to Aboriginal people (including land claims and Aboriginal consultation obligations) influence the manner in which the project is conducted?

18. Do health and safety requirements add significant complexity to the requirements for this project?

3.2 Strategic Management Risks (6 Questions)

19. How well and how clearly does the project align with the organization's mandate and strategic outcomes?

20. What level of priority is the project to the organization?

21. How thoroughly does the project business case demonstrate the value of the project to the organization?

22. To what degree is the organization's management and relevant stakeholders aware of the project?

23. Does the project have a communications plan?

24. How extensive is the commitment of the organization's senior executive management, stakeholders, partners, and project sponsors to the timely and successful completion of this project? Consider the following criteria:

  1. A senior project sponsor or management champion is engaged.
  2. Stakeholders and partners are willing to reallocate resources if necessary.
  3. Senior executive management oversight is in place.
  4. Commitment from all stakeholders is confirmed.

3.3 Procurement Risks (9 Questions)

25. The documented project procurement strategy:

26. What is the supplier availability and willingness?

27. Will the appropriate products, goods, or services be supplied in a timely manner (according to specified contract delivery dates or required delivery dates) within the expected cost envelope by a qualified supplier?

28. How many of the following statements are true?

  1. The personnel involved in the project's procurement component have expertise in writing specifications or contracts.
  2. The personnel involved in the project's procurement component have subject-matter expertise in the goods or services being procured.
  3. There is a robust review process for contract award.

29. How many separate contracts associated with key deliverables are planned for this project?

30. How many of the following statements are true?

  1. The firm or individual obtaining the contract will subcontract to other companies
  2. Contracts are subject to trade agreements
  3. The results of the contract are dependent on the results of another contract.

31. Based on the contract, consider the degree of control over supplier selection and anticipated contract style.

32. How many of the following statements pertaining to contract management are true?

  1. The personnel who wrote the contract are involved in the management of the contract.
  2. There is a standardized acceptance process for the review of the completion of contracts (e.g. peer reviewing or field trials).
  3. The lines of communication between the contract authority and the contractor are well-defined and regularized.
  4. There is a standardized process for reporting progress (e.g. punctual evaluation or regular meetings).
  5. There is a mechanism in place to address any contractual disagreements between parties regarding the completion of a contract.

33. Has PWGSC or a delegated contracting authority been formally engaged through a service agreement to provide adequate support for the procurement process?

3.4 Human Resources Risks (5 Questions)

34. Does the organization anticipate a shortage of available personnel with appropriate skills during a significant period of the project?

35. What is the predicted stability of the project team? Consider the following criteria:

  1. The project team has previously worked together.
  2. A low rate of turnover is expected.
  3. It is expected that a suitable replacement will be readily available.

36. What percentage of the project team is assigned full-time to the project?

37. Consider the following criteria regarding knowledge and experience:

  1. The project will use a proven approach.
  2. This type of project has been done before in the Government of Canada.
  3. The project will use resources that have been applied to this type of project before.

38. Has the assigned project manager worked on a project of this size and complexity before?

3.5 Business Risks (5 Questions)

39. Describe the overall effect of this project on the organization:

40. Does the project have a change management plan?

41. What is the level of public involvement required to achieve expected outcomes?

42. What level of legal risk will be introduced by this project through the addition of new liabilities, regulatory requirements, and legislative changes?

43. Are there expected challenges to ensure that this project complies with relevant Treasury Board policy requirements, such as those regarding security, accessibility, common look and feel standards for the Internet, and management of government information?

3.6 Project Management Integration Risks (6 Questions)

44. How many of the following elements are defined in the project management plan?

  1. scope
  2. costs
  3. schedule
  4. project controls
  5. risks
  6. deliverables
  7. team or skills

45. To indicate the extent of the project team's being appropriately organized to undertake a project of this scope, how many of these criteria are met?

  1. Project team composition, resource levels, and roles and responsibilities are defined and documented.
  2. Resources are dedicated (i.e. available when required).
  3. Responsibilities and required authorities for managers and leads within the project team are defined and documented.

46. Has a project reporting and control process appropriate for the project been documented?

47. How many of the following disciplines will, or does the project employ?

  1. quality assurance
  2. risk management
  3. outcome management
  4. issue management

48. Has a risk management plan been completed, and to what degree have appropriate contingency plans been included which respond to the risks as identified in the plan?

Consider the following criteria:

  1. Identified risks have been assessed and prioritized.
  2. Appropriate controls and mitigations are in place for all significant residual risks.
  3. A risk management plan has been integrated into the project management plan.

49. Is an appropriate information management (IM) process planned or in place to collect, distribute, and protect relevant and important project information, such as designs, project plans, baseline, and registers?

3.7 Project Requirements Risks (15 Questions)

50. How many of the following statements are true?

  1. The project solution requires a high degree (greater than normal) of availability.
  2. The project solution requires customization beyond normal configuration.
  3. The project solution requires a high degree of performance quality.
  4. The project solution requires a high degree of reliability.

51. In defining project requirements, how many of the following statements are true?

  1. The requirements can be defined with very few people.
  2. The requirements can be defined in a short period of time.
  3. There are a small number of individual requirements to define.
  4. The requirements do not require a high degree of detail.

52. To what extent have available sources/methods been employed and verified to provide information for this project as applicable (e.g. research, consultations, workshops, surveys, and existing documentation)?

53. Have the business requirements been validated with users with an appropriate technique, such as walk-throughs, workshops, and independent verification and validation?

54. Have feasibility studies been conducted, and is there confidence in the assumptions made in the feasibility studies?

55. What percentage of tasks cannot be fully defined until the completion of previous tasks? These are tasks that may be understood but cannot be documented in detail due to dependency on results from a previous task.

56. To what extent are the project's requirements clear, completed, and communicated?

57. How many of the following project characteristics are expected to remain stable?

  1. quality
  2. functionality
  3. schedule
  4. integration
  5. design
  6. testing

58. Are any other projects dependent on outputs or outcomes of this project?

59. Are outcomes of this project dependent on the outputs and/or outcomes of any other projects?

60. What degree of integration with externalities, such as other projects, systems, infrastructure, or organizations, is required?

61. What degree of integration is required within the project?

62. Relative to the average (typical) project in your organization, which of the following adjectives describes the number of tasks, elements, or deliverables in the work breakdown structure?

63. Does the project schedule accommodate the critical path of the project, including appropriate contingencies?

64. What is the effect on the project of the requirement for scarce resources or resources that are in very high demand?

Footnotes

Footnote 1

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. IEEE Standard Computer Dictionary: A Compilation of IEEE Standard Computer Glossaries. New York, NY: 1990.

Evans, Michael W. and Marciniak, John. Software Quality Assurance and Management. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1987.